The Haniyeh assassination is unlikely to drag Iran into a wider war. Iranians leaders understand that Israel is achieving tactical wins in the midst of a strategic defeat.
Israel is making rash and escalatory moves because it is increasingly isolated, divided, and weak.
The spate of Israeli attacks and assassinations may be humiliating, but Iran has repeatedly calibrated its responses to these provocations, avoiding a wider war.
In the weeks after October 7, this was because of Iran's own reluctance to bear the costs of a larger conflict.
But now, Iranian leaders have come to understand that Netanyahu and other senior leaders in Israel are seeking a way out from the strategic defeat they face.
t's in Iran's interest to absorb tactical defeats while Israel faces a strategic defeat.
Israel has destroyed Gaza. But as the world bears witness to a genocide, Israel is also tearing the fabric of its own society to shreds.
